Отрицатели науки. Как говорить с плоскоземельщиками, антиваксерами и конспирологами

Глава 4. Близкие контакты с глобальным потеплением

Mooney C. и др. The World Has Just Over a Decade to Get Climate Change under Control // The Washington Post. 2018. 7 октября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/; Chestney N. Global Carbon Emissions Hit Record High in 2017 // Reuters. 2018. 22 марта. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-energy-carbon-iea/global-carbon-emissions-hit-record-high-in-2017-idUSKBN1GY0RB.

Dennis B. и др. ‘We Are in Trouble’: Global Carbon Emissions Reached a Record High in 2018 // The Washington Post. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/05/we-are-trouble-global-carbon-emissions-reached-new-record-high/; Carrington D. ‘Brutal News’: Global Carbon Emissions Jump to All Time High in 2018 // The Guardian. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/dec/05/brutal-news-global-carbon-emissions-jump-to-all-time-high-in-2018; Plumer B. U.S. Carbons Emissions Surged in 2018, Even as Coal Plants Closed // The New York Times. 2019. 8 января. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/08/climate/greenhouse-gas-emissions-increase.html.

Harvey C. и др. CO2 Emissions Will Break Another Record in 2019 // Scientific American. 2019. 4 декабря. URL: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/co2-emissions-will-break-another-record-in-2019/. Но есть кое-какие хорошие новости: хотя мировая эмиссия в 2019 году ожидается максимальной за все годы, темп роста, похоже, падает. Harvey C. и др. Greenhouse Gas Emissions to Set New Record This Year, but Rate of Growth Shrinks // Science. 2019. 4 декабря. URL: https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/12/greenhouse-gas-emissions-year-set-new-record-rate-growth-shrinks. В США эмиссия парниковых газов в 2019 году упала на 2,1 % благодаря главным образом сокращению потребления угля. К несчастью, это еще совсем не тот темп, который позволит нам выполнить обязательства по Парижскому соглашению. Mufson S. U.S. Greenhouse Gas Emissions Fell Slightly in 2019 // The Washington Post. 2020. 7 января. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/us-greenhouse-gas-emissions-fell-slightly-in-2019/2020/01/06/568f0a82-309e-11ea-a053-dc6d944ba776_story.html.

Dennis B. и др. ‘We Are in Trouble’: Global Carbon Emissions Reached a Record High in 2018 // The Washington Post. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/05/we-are-trouble-global-carbon-emissions-reached-new-record-high/.

Davenport C. Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040 // The New York Times. 2018. 7 октября. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html; Dennis B. и др. ‘We Are in Trouble’: Global Carbon Emissions Reached a Record High in 2018 // The Washington Post. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/05/we-are-trouble-global-carbon-emissions-reached-new-record-high/; Holden E. ‘It’ll Change Back’: Trump Says Climate Change Not a Hoax, but Denies Lasting Impact // The Guardian. 2018. 15 октября. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2018/oct/15/itll-change-back-trump-says-climate-change-not-a-hoax-but-denies-lasting-impact.

Dennis B. In Bleak Report, UN Says Drastic Action Is Only Way to Avoid Worst Impacts of Climate Change // The Washington Post. 2019. 26 ноября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/11/26/bleak-report-un-says-drastic-action-is-only-way-avoid-worst-impacts-climate-change/; Doyle A. Global Warming May Be More Severe Than Expected by 2100: Study // Reuters. 2017. 6 декабря. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-climatechange-temperatures/global-warming-may-be-more-severe-than-expected-by-2100-study-idUSKBN1E02J6; Mosher D. и др. What Earth Might Look Like in 80 Years if We’re Lucky – and if We’re Not // Business Insider. 2019. 17 октября. URL: https://www.businessinsider.com/paris-climate-change-limits-100-years-2017-6; Christensen J. и др. Climate Change Will Shrink U.S. Economy and Kill Thousands, Government Report Warns // CNN. 2018. 26 ноября. URL: https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html.

Davenport C. Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040 // The New York Times. 2018. 7 октября. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-climate-report-2040.html.

Davenport C. Major Climate Report Describes a Strong Risk of Crisis as Early as 2040 // The New York Times. 2018. 7 октября. Meador R. New Outlook on Global Warming: Best Prepare for Social Collapse, and Soon // MinnPost. 2018. 15 октября. URL: https://www.minnpost.com/earth-journal/2018/10/new-outlook-on-global-warming-best-prepare-for-social-collapse-and-soon/.

Bledsoe P. Going Nowhere Fast and Climate Change, Year After Year // The New York Times. 2018. 19 декабря. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/12/29/opinion/climate-change-global-warming-history.html; Dennis B. и др. ‘We Are in Trouble’: Global Carbon Emissions Reached a Record High in 2018 // The Washington Post. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/05/we-are-trouble-global-carbon-emissions-reached-new-record-high/. Mooney C. и др. The World Has Just over a Decade to Get Climate Change under Control // The Washington Post. 2018. 7 октября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/.

Dennis B. и др. ‘We Are in Trouble’: Global Carbon Emissions Reached a Record High in 2018 // The Washington Post. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/05/we-are-trouble-global-carbon-emissions-reached-new-record-high/; Mooney C. и др. The World Has Just over a Decade to Get Climate Change under Control // The Washington Post. 2018. 7 октября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/10/08/world-has-only-years-get-climate-change-under-control-un-scientists-say/.

Mufson S. ‘A Kind of Dark Realism’: Why the Climate Change Problem Is Starting to Look Too Big to Solve // The Washington Post. 2018. 4 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-kind-of-dark-realism-why-the-climate-change-problem-is-starting-to-look-too-big-to-solve/2018/12/03/378e49e4-e75d-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html.

Rice D. Coal Is the Main Offender for Global Warming, and Yet the World Is Using It More Than Ever // USA Today. 2019. 26 марта. URL: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/03/26/climate-change-coal-still-king-global-carbon-emissions-soar/3276401002/.

Dennis B. и др. ‘We Are in Trouble’: Global Carbon Emissions Reached a Record High in 2018 // The Washington Post. 2018. 5 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/12/05/we-are-trouble-global-carbon-emissions-reached-new-record-high/.

Carraud S. и др. Macron Makes U-turn on Fuel Tax Increase, in Face of ‘Yellow Vest’ Protests // Reuters. 2018. 4 декабря. URL: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-france-protests/macron-makes-u-turn-on-fuel-tax-increases-in-face-of-yellow-vest-protests-idUSKBN1O30MX.

Mufson S. ‘A Kind of Dark Realism’: Why the Climate Change Problem Is Starting to Look Too Big to Solve // The Washington Post. 2018. 4 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/a-kind-of-dark-realism-why-the-climate-change-problem-is-starting-to-look-too-big-to-solve/2018/12/03/378e49e4-e75d-11e8-a939-9469f1166f9d_story.html.

Dennis B. Trump Makes It Official: U.S. Will Withdraw from Paris Climate Accords // The Washington Post. 2019. 4 ноября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2019/11/04/trump-makes-it-official-us-will-withdraw-paris-climate-accord/.

Roberts D. The Trump Administration Just Snuck through Its Most Devious Coal Subsidy Yet // Vox. 2019. 23 декабря. URL: https://www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2019/12/23/21031112/trump-coal-ferc-energy-subsidy-mopr.

Rott N. и др. Trump Administration Weakens Auto Emissions Standards // NPR. 2020. 31 марта. URL: https://www.npr.org/2020/03/31/824431240/trump-administration-weakens-auto-emissions-rolling-back-key-climate-policy.

Kingsley P. Trump Says California Can Learn from Finland on Fires. Is He Right? // The New York Times. 2018. 18 ноября. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/18/world/europe/finland-california-wildfires-trump-raking.html.

Rubin J. Trump Shows the Rank Dishonesty of Climate-Change Deniers // The Washington Post. 2018. 15 октября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/opinions/wp/2018/10/15/trump-shows-the-rank-dishonesty-of-climate-change-deniers/.

Dawsey J. и др. Trump on Climate Change: ‘People Like Myself, We Have Very High Levels of Intelligence but We’re Not Necessarily Such Believers’ // The Washington Post. 2018. 27 ноября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-on-climate-change-people-like-myself-we-have-very-high-levels-of-intelligence-but-were-not-necessarily-such-believers/2018/11/27/722f0184-f27e-11e8-aeea-b85fd44449f5_story.html; Viser M. ‘Just a Lot of Alarmism’: Trump’s Skepticism of Climate Science Is Echoed across GOP // The Washington Post. 2018. 2 декабря. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/just-a-lot-of-alarmism-trumps-skepticism-of-climate-science-is-echoed-across-gop/2018/12/02/f6ee9ca6-f4de-11e8-bc79-68604ed88993_story.html.

Dennis B. Major Trump Administration Climate Report Says Damage Is ‘Intensifying across the Country’ // The Washington Post. 2018. 23 ноября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/energy-environment/2018/11/23/major-trump-administration-climate-report-says-damages-are-intensifying-across-country/; Christensen J. и др. Climate Change Will Shrink U.S. Economy and Kill Thousands // CNN. 2018. 23 ноября. URL: https://www.cnn.com/2018/11/23/health/climate-change-report-bn/index.html.

Нет единодушия по поводу громких заявлений о том, что глобальное потепление сделает планету непригодной для жизни или приведет к исчезновению нашего вида. Тем не менее нет сомнений, что оно радикально изменит жизнь человечества, принесет неисчислимые бедствия и миллионы смертей. Это не говоря уже о массовом вымирании других видов и утрате биоразнообразия. Watson R. Loss of Biodiversity Is Just as Catastrophic as Climate Change // The Guardian. 2019. 6 мая. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/06/biodiversity-climate-change-mass-extinctions; Shellenberger M. Why Apocalyptic Claims About Climate Change Are Wrong // Forbes. 2019. 25 ноября. URL: https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaelshellenberger/2019/11/25/why-everything-they-say-about-climate-change-is-wrong/#5cea81cb12d6; Mooney C. Scientists Challenge Magazine Story about ‘Uninhabitable Earth’ // The Washington Post. 2017. 12 июля. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/energy-environment/wp/2017/07/12/scientists-challenge-magazine-story-about-uninhabitable-earth/; Christensen J. 250,000 Deaths a Year from Climate Change Is a ‘Conservative Estimate,’ Research Says // CNN. 2019. 16 января. URL: https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/16/health/climate-change-health-emergency-study/index.html; The Impact of Global Warming on Human Fatality Rates // Scientific American. 2009. 7 июня. URL: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/global-warming-and-health/.

Climate Concerns Increase: Most Republicans Now Acknowledge Change // Monmouth. 2018. 29 ноября. URL: https://www.monmouth.edu/polling-institute/reports/monmouthpoll_us_112918/. Ряд других недавних опросов подтвердил эти результаты: Schwartz J. Global Warming Concerns Rise Among Americans in New Poll // The New York Times. 2019. 22 января. URL: https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/climate/americans-global-warming-poll.html; Meyer R. Voters Really Care about Climate Change // The Atlantic. 2020. 21 февраля. URL: https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2020/02/poll-us-voters-really-do-care-about-climate-change/606907/; Dennis B. и др. Americans Increasingly See Climate Change as a Crisis, Poll Shows // The Washington Post. 2019. 13 сентября. URL: https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/americans-increasingly-see-climate-change-as-a-crisis-poll-shows/2019/09/12/74234db0-cd2a-11e9-87fa-8501a456c003_story.html; Scientific Consensus: Earth’s Climate Is Warming // NASA. URL: https://climate.nasa.gov/scientific-consensus/.

См. главу 7 в: Mooney C. The Republican War on Science. New York: Basic Books, 2005.

Два лучших примера: Hansen J. Storms of My Grandchildren. New York: Bloomsbury, 2009 и Hoggan J. Climate Cover-Up: The Crusade to Deny Global Warming. Vancouver: Greystone, 2009.

Mooney C. The Republican War on Science. New York: Basic Books, 2005. С. 81.

Powell J.L. Why Climate Deniers Have No Scientific Credibility – in One Pie Chart // DeSmog. 2012. 15 ноября. URL: https://www.desmogblog.com/2012/11/15/why-climate-deniers-have-no-credibility-science-one-pie-chart.

Powell J.L. Why Climate Deniers Have No Scientific Credibility: Only 1 of 9,136 Recent Peer-Reviewed Authors Rejects Global Warming // DeSmog. 2014. 8 января. URL: https://www.desmogblog.com/2014/01/08/why-climate-deniers-have-no-scientific-credibility-only-1-9136-study-authors-rejects-global-warming.

Doran P.T. и др. Examining the Scientific Consensus on Climate Change // Eos: Transactions of the American Geophysical Union. 2009. № 90 (3). С. 22–23.

Cook J. и др. Quantifying the Consensus on Anthropogenic Global Warming in the Scientific Literature // Environmental Research Letters. 2013. 15 мая. URL: https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/8/2/024024/pdf; The 97 % Consensus on Global Warming // Skeptical Science. URL: https://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-scientific-consensus-intermediate.htm.

Foley K.E. Those 3 % of Scientific Papers That Deny Climate Change? A Review Found Them All Flawed // Quartz. 2017. 5 сентября. URL: https://qz.com/1069298/the-3-of-scientific-papers-that-deny-climate-change-are-all-flawed/; Nuccitelli D. Millions of Times Later, 97 Percent Climate Consensus Still Faces Denial // Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. 2019. 15 августа. URL: https://thebulletin.org/2019/08/millions-of-times-later-97-percent-climate-consensus-still-faces-denial/; Nuccitelli D. Here’s What Happens When You Try to Replicate Climate Contrarian Papers // The Guardian. 2015. 25 августа. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2015/aug/25/heres-what-happens-when-you-try-to-replicate-climate-contrarian-papers; Benestad R.E. и др. Learning from Mistakes in Climate Research // Theoretical and Applied Climatology. 2016. № 126. С. 699–703. URL: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s00704-015-1597-5.

Поразительно, что даже сегодня, спустя 150 лет после великого открытия Дарвина, лишь 98 % ученых согласны с его теорией эволюции путем естественного отбора (которая служит основой любых объяснений в биологии). Masci D. For Darwin Day, 6 Facts about the Evolution Debate // Pew Research Center’s Fact Tank. 2019. 11 февраля. URL: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2019/02/11/darwin-day/.

Nuccitelli D. Trump Thinks Scientists Are Split on Climate Change. So Do Most Americans // The Guardian. 2018. 22 октября. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/climate-consensus-97-per-cent/2018/oct/22/trump-thinks-scientists-are-split-on-climate-change-so-do-most-americans.

Институт создали сразу после подписания Киотского протокола (декабрь 1997 года), а известно о нем стало в апреле 1998 года. 1998 American Petroleum Institute Global Climate Science Communications Team Action Plan // Climate Files. URL: http://www.climatefiles.com/trade-group/american-petroleum-institute/1998-global-climate-science-communications-team-action-plan/.

Climate Science vs. Fossil Fuel Fiction // Union of Concerned Scientists. 2015. Март. URL: https://www.ucsusa.org/sites/default/files/attach/2015/03/APIquote1998_1.pdf.

Hall S. Exxon Knew about Climate Change almost 40 Years Ago // Scientific American. 2015. 26 октября. URL: https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/exxon-knew-about-climate-change-almost-40-years-ago/; Goldenberg S. Exxon Knew of Climate Change in 1981, Email Says – But It Funded Deniers for 27 More Years // The Guardian. 2015. 8 июля. URL: https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/jul/08/exxon-climate-change-1981-climate-denier-funding.

Меня неизменно изумляет, почему адепты конспирологии не интересуются вот этими вещами – подлинными заговорами! См. об этом: Coll S. Private Empire: ExxonMobil and American Power. New York: Penguin Press, 2012; ExxonMobil: A ‘Private Empire’ on the World Stage // NPR. 2012. 2 мая. URL: http://www.npr.org/2012/05/02/151842205/exxonmobil-a-private-empire-on-the-world-stage.

Oreskes N. и др. Merchants of Doubt. New York: Bloomsbury, 2011. С. 183.

Nancy Pelosi and Newt Gingrich Commercial on Climate Change // YouTube. 2008. 17 апреля. URL: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qi6n_-wB154.

В «Торговцах сомнением» (Oreskes N. и др. Merchants of Doubt. New York: Bloomsbury, 2011) Орескес и Конуэй утверждают, что «организованная кампания отрицания началась [в 1989 году] и скоро опутала все климатологическое сообщество» (с. 183). В итоге это привело к тому, что общественная озабоченность глобальным потеплением пошла на спад – хотя у ученых оставалось все меньше сомнений в его реальности, – особенно после кампании давления на масс-медиа, которые вынуждали предоставлять равное время «другой стороне» в «споре» о климатических изменениях (с. 169–170, 214–215). К тому моменту, когда дошло до слушаний в Конгрессе, никакой реальной надежды на борьбу с глобальным потеплением уже не было. В 1997 году Сенат блокировал ратификацию Америкой Киотского протокола (с. 215).